The point is: Putin is winning. Not only because he gives shit about the life of his troops and that of the civilan population in Ukraine. But because he managed to bring the Ukrainian offensive to a halt, keeps destroying Ukrainian essential infrastructure, and come February will send wave after wave of fresh recruits whereas the Ukrainian soldiers are already in their 5th or 6th deployment.
Ukraine could have prevented a silting-up of its offensive had it been equipped with tanks and far-reaching rocket systems. But the U.S. and in particular Germany stalled such deliveries way too long. Now it's too late.
Right now I expect Ukraine to surrender in early 2023.
What an awful prospect.
2/2
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Friday, 23-Dec-2022 09:36:20 JST
simsa04After Congress in a joined session cheered on Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday, it's perhaps worth taking a more sober look at the state of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried to keep a wavering public engaged, and asked for more support and assistance in Ukraine's fight against Russia. That he even travelled to the U.S. in person may be a sign that Zelensky knows how bad the situation has become.
In Ukraine, the Russian partial mobilisation and addition of untrained and unequipped soldiers to its regular troops in the battlefileds of the Donbas helped end the impetus of the Ukrainian offensive of late autum and brought their movement to a standstill. Neither in the north nor in the south are Ukrainian forces capable to push Russian troops back. At the same time Russian military has fortified defensive positions. Mariupol is one of two "cities" Russia aims to convert into a military seaport for reinforcements. For Russia, the statitc trench warfare in Bakhmut is not about capturing Bakhmut itself but to bind Ukrainian forces. In the meantime new Russian recruits are said to be trained in Belarus.
To bring the Ukrainian offensive to a standstill, untrained soldiers were sufficient. The trench warfare will last over the winter. In February up to 300,000 new armed forces are expected to launch a new attack on Ukraine. Until then, Russia will keep destroying Ukraine's infrastructure.
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Sunday, 18-Dec-2022 14:55:06 JST
simsa04I'm a dishwasher, a cleaner, a lavatory attendant... I don't fear or despise unclean work. So why not volunteer in a Ukrainian hospital or nursing home, doing the laundry, cleaning floors, bathrooms, or operation theatres... If I want to support Ukraine and its people, but won't join military service or rebuilding efforts, that may be an option: volunteering for 6 months.
Another Mastodon / ActiviyPub propaganda piece, neglecting the severe problems for the Fediverse that come with de-federation. But important is not that Mastodon is promoted, nor that the headline is misleading because not Musk but some Fediverse programmers "reinvented" "the internet". Important is that this article appeared in a mainstream, even conservative, news site (thehill.com). It seems to mirror a growing distrust towards Twitter (under Musk) and eagerness to find alternatives even by a more mainstream audience.
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Saturday, 17-Dec-2022 04:44:32 JST
simsa04When on Twitter you have to screenshot (!) a link to a Mastodon run server because Twitter prevents posting it, calling it possibly harmful. I mean, seriously, Twitter, why don't you just shut down shop right now? You're not even a platform any more but a ridiculous imitation of some social media business.
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Thursday, 15-Dec-2022 14:01:37 JST
simsa04I still wonder how #Russia under #Putin, Putin and his circle, and their apologists in the South and West could ever come up with the idea that NATO and "the West" were out to "encircle" and "subdue" Russia. If you want to bring down a country, you don't first engage in economic relationships with it or make yourself dependent on it in crucial areas of #infrastructure and #energy. Assuming Putin to be a rational player – a murderous one, but still – he must have clearly seen that delivery of raw materials to the West was increasing, not decreasing Russia's security. Not even a NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia could endanger Russia given the scale of Western dependency. Thus, the Greater Russia chimera with the corresponding conspiracy idea of the West wanting to "extinguish" Russia is the fantasy of a drama queen that cannot accept that Russia is a banal and mediocre state with little else to offer than raw materials and conflict. Putin needed to concoct interrelationships of historical, existential, and religous dimensions because he seemingly couldn't accept that after 20 years in power (various positions), his only achievement had been the creation of a mafia-state for his self-enrichment. But the country itself had become a failure, and so, irrespective of his riches, he himself. (Since 2007 I would argue.) And so he started it. A genocidal war on a sovereign neighbouring state, to ease his feelings of inferiority as man and head of state.
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Wednesday, 14-Dec-2022 23:50:06 JST
simsa04Outside, on the balcony, my laundry hangs on the drying rack to dry. It's cold and my t-shirts freeze and become stiff. Never experienced that before. But it's fine as a lot of moisture evaporates that way. Pulling one by one back inside to hang over the heater.
Again, the subtlety of Laudenbach's play contrasts with the exaggeratedness of the voices. The latter assume a bit too much staginess and "vocal gestures" wheras the guitar flows in its own expression.
I'm a fan of A.R. but here I want to draw attention to the subtle play of Isabelle Laudenbach. What beautiful phrasing! (Like often in such duets, the voice gets prominence, so listen closely.)
The frightening lesson to me is not the professionalism of the thieves but that every citizen can start tracking other persons simply by secretly placing an activated mobile into their pockets (or wherever). What comes as convenience to regain one's property has the potential for individually pursued surveillance in violation of privacy rights and data autonomy of target persons. Scary prospects.