simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Sunday, 09-Oct-2022 00:58:01 JST
simsa04As much as I admire Ukraine's decision to turn to Europe and become a functioning parliamentary democracy, Western and European nations shouldn't succumb to their idealization of Ukraine as a beacon in the fight for democratic values and the defense of the West. The danger seems to me that as much as Russia is misreading Ukraine, so does "the West": the former in its contempt for Ukraine as "Russia minor", the later in its idealisation of Ukraine and its fight for liberal values the West itself hasn't been capable to succeed in.
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Sunday, 09-Oct-2022 00:03:59 JST
simsa04As much as I am gleeful about the damage of the Kerch Bridge, I really hope that Ukrainian authorities and armed forces keep in mind that Russian civilians in Crimea cannot be a target in the conflict. That means that water supply from the north needs to continue uninterruptedly.
« What [Putin] has done in Ukraine has changed his position in Moscow, and for the worse. It does not follow from that, though, they he "must" win the war in Ukraine, whatever that means ("can" comes logically before "must"). Holding on to power in Moscow is what matters, and that does not necessarily mean exposing himself to further risk in Ukraine. Once (and if) Putin understands that the war is lost, he will adjust his thinking about his position at home. »
« Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst based in Poland, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was “responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units”.
International analysts suggest, however, that a more likely demonstration of Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons could come in the Black Sea. [...]
Sources said Nato had sent an intelligence report to its members and allies alerting them to the fact that Russia is expected to test its nuclear-capable torpedo drone Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, which it controls. As officials in Washington draw up possible scenarios for a response, Nato is thought to have reported that the nuclear submarine K-329 Belgorod is headed to the Arctic, having become operational in July.
The Poseidon torpedo [...] can be launched from the submarine. According to La Repubblica newspaper, it is about to be tested in the area of the Kara Sea, north of the Russian mainland. The Poseidon operates autonomously and is about 24m (78ft) long, with a range of at least 10,000km (6,200 miles). »
simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Monday, 03-Oct-2022 14:20:28 JST
simsa04I want to pack all my books in boxes and move to the countryside, not off the grid but off the internet and off the maddening crowd. I want to be free of my jobs and just sit read and write. I miss this for several years now and I feel exhausted by the dullness I acquired since.
Take the protests in Russia after the partial mobilisation: Young men were arrested and while in custody served their draft orders. Advantages: Putin cracks down on protests by scaring people off while at the same time filling the ranks of his depleted forces.
Take the annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts: Putin incorporates these areas into Russian state territory and announces the use of nuclear weapons in case of further "aggression". Advantages: As he can now point to "Greater Russia" to be attacked, he strengthens the bond between regime and people and subdues opposition. At the same time, as the West and NATO cannot allow Putin to use nuclear weapons in his war of aggression (it would open the door for "nuclear extortion" by any rogue state), Putin has changed the subject: from Russia's imperialist war on Ukraine to a war of self-defense against the West and NATO – something he has claimed him and Russia to confront since the early 2000s.